Scenarios
Four scenarios of Treasury market stress
The effect of a change depends on its source, maturity, persistence, and which investors respond. Choose a scenario to see the evidence and assumptions.
Rising debt
Who will absorb more Treasury supply?
See who absorbed the recent expansion and why the answer differs across bills, notes, and long-term bonds.
Inflation
When inflation rises, who adds pressure and who absorbs it?
An identified cost-push shock lowers foreign official demand while the Fed’s response moves in the opposite direction.
Foreign withdrawals
Why does investor identity matter?
Equal-sized withdrawals can move yields differently because investors hold different maturities and respond differently to market conditions.
Quantitative tightening
Does the design of QT matter?
Compare fewer Fed holdings today with weaker expected Fed demand when debt and market conditions change.
How to read the results
Every exhibit is labeled as observed holdings, an estimated response, or a model counterfactual. That distinction matters. Holdings tell us what happened. Estimated responses describe how an investor’s demand has moved with yields and economic conditions. Counterfactuals ask what the model predicts under a specified change.
On this site, resilience is the inverse of the absolute model-implied yield response to a specified shock. A smaller yield response means greater resilience. It does not measure trading depth, bid-ask spreads, repo stress, nonlinear market breakdowns, or crisis probability.