Treasury Demand
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Pressure 01 · Rising debt

Who will absorb more Treasury supply?

Marketable Treasury supply roughly tripled from 2011Q4 through 2024Q4. The sectors absorbing that increase differed across maturities and subperiods.

Headline finding

Who absorbed new supply changed across periods and maturities.

Select a subperiod and sector to see where investors added or reduced Treasury holdings.

Observed holdings

Changes in holdings by sector and maturity

Select a sector in the legend or chart to isolate it. Values are changes in holdings, in billions of dollars.

Treasury holdings changes by investor sector and maturity, 2022–2024Diverging stacked bars show net sellers to the left and net buyers to the right. The selected sector is emphasized.Net sellersNet buyersShort (<1 year)U.S. banks: +51.7 billion dollarsU.S. ETFs: +78.8 billion dollarsU.S. money market funds: +1235.4 billion dollarsU.S. mutual funds: -11.2 billion dollarsU.S. insurers and pensions: +13.6 billion dollarsForeign official: +80.3 billion dollarsForeign private: +72.6 billion dollarsFederal Reserve: -405.1 billion dollarsOther U.S. investors: +844.3 billion dollarsDealers and hedge funds: +473.5 billion dollarsTotal change in marketable Treasury supply: +2433.9 billion dollarsMedium (1–5 years)U.S. banks: +57.7 billion dollarsU.S. ETFs: +61.3 billion dollarsU.S. money market funds: 0.0 billion dollarsU.S. mutual funds: -12.9 billion dollarsU.S. insurers and pensions: +37.0 billion dollarsForeign official: -320.6 billion dollarsForeign private: +13.4 billion dollarsFederal Reserve: -755.8 billion dollarsOther U.S. investors: +1451.8 billion dollarsDealers and hedge funds: +517.6 billion dollarsTotal change in marketable Treasury supply: +1049.5 billion dollarsLong (5+ years)U.S. banks: -105.7 billion dollarsU.S. ETFs: +101.2 billion dollarsU.S. money market funds: 0.0 billion dollarsU.S. mutual funds: +76.8 billion dollarsU.S. insurers and pensions: -17.4 billion dollarsForeign official: -7.3 billion dollarsForeign private: +123.6 billion dollarsFederal Reserve: -812.2 billion dollarsOther U.S. investors: -58.4 billion dollarsDealers and hedge funds: +431.3 billion dollarsTotal change in marketable Treasury supply: -268.1 billion dollars0Total supply change

All sectors · 2022–2024

Total marketable Treasury supply change

The stacked sector changes sum to the total change in marketable Treasury supply over 2022–2024. The black markers show those totals for each maturity bucket.

Short (<1 year)+2433.9 $bn
Medium (1–5 years)+1049.5 $bn
Long (5+ years)-268.1 $bn
Total across buckets+3215.3 $bn
Observed holdings

Interpretation: This accounting shows where the debt went. Negative values are net sales; the black marker is the total change in marketable Treasury supply.

Source: Dissecting Treasury Market Resilience, Figure 9; underlying sector-by-maturity holdings data, 2011Q4–2024Q4. Descriptive holdings accounting does not identify why a sector bought or sold.

Economic interpretation

Yields adjust until aggregate demand equals Treasury supply.

When Treasury issues more debt, yields adjust until investors are willing to hold it. The model combines each sector’s demand curve with dealers and hedge funds, who hold the supply left after other investors and the Fed choose their positions.

Short-maturity imbalances carry little duration risk, while long-maturity supply requires a larger yield adjustment.

This analysis measures market absorption and yield adjustment. It does not estimate fiscal sustainability, default risk, or a maximum sustainable debt level.

See the market-clearing step
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