Research papers
Working paper · August 2026
The paper studies foreign withdrawals, inflation, and quantitative tightening. It shows that the required yield adjustment depends on who absorbs the shock, whether it persists, and how policy responds.
NBER Working Paper 33243
The paper combines sector-level Treasury holdings with a structural model of dealers and hedge funds. It shows why market elasticity falls with maturity and how cross-maturity substitution changes the response of term premia to monetary tightening.
For media & industry
When reporting a result, retain its label: observed holdings, estimated response, or model counterfactual.